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Predicting Future Price Moves In AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB)

Alexander Baker by Alexander Baker
January 23, 2023
in Business
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AvalonBay Communities Inc. (NYSE:AVB) does about 867.56K shares in volume on a normal day but saw 1568372 shares change hands in Friday trading. The company now has a market cap of 23.60B USD. Its current market price is $170.35, marking an increase of 0.98% compared to the previous close of $168.70. The 52 week high reached by this stock is $259.05 whilst the lowest price level in 52 weeks is $157.69. The script in recent trading has seen the stock touch a high of $170.57 and a low of $166.96.

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AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) has a 20-day trading average at $164.70 and the current price is -34.24% off the 52-week high compared with 8.03% distance from its 52-week low. The 50-day simple moving average of the closing price is $166.88 and its 200-day simple moving average is $193.60. If we look at the stock’s price movements over the week, volatility stands at 1.96%, which increases to 2.14% over 1 month. It is also key to look at other market indicators of price movement for the stock, where we see that the relative strength index (RSI) is at 56.89 to suggest the stock is neutral.

24 analysts observing the AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) stock have set the 12-month price targets for the company’s shares at between $160.00 and $282.00. The consensus objective for the share price is $186.91, suggesting that the stock has a potential upside of 8.86% over the period. The median price target is 7.92% away from the current levels at $185.00.

FactSet Research has provided data showing that 24 brokerages have issued ratings for the stock. 2 analysts have rated it as a sell, while 0 advise that it is a overweight. 6 analysts have rated it as a buy and 16 have advised that investors hold their positions. The consensus recommendation rating is Hold and Wall Street’s advice is for investors to Moderate Buy the stock.

The company shares received a number of brokerage firm price updates over the past month, with the latest being on January 17, 2023 when Truist upgraded the stock to “Buy” and issued a price target of between $186 and $190. Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to “Hold” from Buy on January 04, 2023 at a price target of $194-$179. JP Morgan downgraded its price target at $206-$197.

The current price level is 3.72%, 2.18%, and -12.19% away from its SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200 respectively, with the AVB price moving above the 50-day SMA on January 20. AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) stock is up 0.05% over the week and 5.01% over the past month. Its price is 5.47% year-to-date and -30.74% over the past year.

The stock last released its quarterly earnings report for quarter ended 6/29/2022, with the company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $0.99 above consensus estimates by $0.07. The company’s next earnings report is expected on 04/26/2023, with forecasts estimating quarterly EPS at $1.26 and $5.2 for whole year. AVB’s earnings per share are forecast to shrink by -27.70% this year and -0.20% over next year. Expected sales for next quarter are $671.59 million, which analysts say will come at $2.59 billion for the current fiscal year and next year at $2.77 billion. In addition, estimates put the company’s current quarterly revenue at an average of $662.46 million.

Its 12-month price target is $185.00. To reach the target analysts have set, the stock logically needs to grow 8.86 percent from here. Of course, the average price target is just what the average analysts believe a stock will be worth in the next 52 weeks, and is only one metric. There are analysts with lower targets than the average, including one bearish Wall Street research firm advocating investors to wait for the price to pull back to $160.00, given the recent momentum. And then, on the bullish side of things, one analyst is expecting the stock to peak at $282.00.

Outstanding shares total 139.64M with insiders holding 0.33% of the shares and institutional holders owning 94.56% of the company’s common stock. The company has a return on investment of 1.90% and return on equity of 10.50%. The price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio) amounts to 19.41 while the forward price to earnings ratio is 30.17. The beta has a value of 0.92. Price to book ratio is 2.12 and price to sales ratio is 9.35.

According to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund has reduced its position in AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) to 6,241,724 shares, mirroring a recent drop by -1.08%. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund dumped 68423.0 shares of AvalonBay Communities Inc. common stock bringing its total worth to about $1.01 billion at the end of recent close, SEC documents show. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund isn’t the only investment manager who changed stakes and is followed by Government Pension Fund – Global, which added 2.21 million shares to end up with 5,904,105 shares worth $953.63 million. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index raise their holdings by 1.16% in the company over the course of the most recent quarter. It now holds a 3.04% position in AvalonBay Communities Inc. thanks to 4.25 million shares amounting to $687.21 million.

Tags: AvalonBay Communities Inc.AVBAVB stockNYSE:AVB
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